#World Oil April 2026 article — validation against worldenergydata
Status: validated 2026-07-06 · all 4 tables dispositioned Benchmark name: "World Oil April 2026 article" (World Oil Lower-Tertiary series, part 2; BSEE-derived data thru Nov 2025) Canonical model artifact: docs/modules/bsee/analysis/production/FDAS_V30/financial_project_summary.xlsx (+ assumptions in lease_assumptions.xlsx) Model basis: the worldenergydata ("wed") toolset is the canonical model going forward. It reproduces the frozen V30 baseline (2025-09-29) to within ±0.1 % and carries the extended V50 production window (through 2026-04) on one code path. Economics below are quoted on the V50 (latest-OGOR-A) basis, with the frozen V30 reference shown alongside; D&C days are version-independent (identical under V30 and V50). Full three-revision comparison, script differences, missed-file inventory and bug review: FDAS revision comparison (§6.1). Live reconciliation page: /completion/verification.html
#0. Executive summary
This document is the durable, single-source record of the validation — every number, discrepancy, and open question lives HERE (email carries only brief pointers to it).
1. The apparent 2× well-days gap is resolved. Our page had headlined drilling-only days; on a like-for-like drilling-plus-completion basis our BSEE-derived extract reconciles with the article's Table 1 within a few percent, with every per-development difference itemized in §3 and kept current on the live verification page. 2. Buckskin is recovered. It was missing from our extract because the pipeline read a shelf-only dataset; the canonical extractor now reads the raw Keathley Canyon WAR data directly and Buckskin lands within one sidetrack and ~2.6% of the article's figures (§3). 3. All four article tables are dispositioned (§2): BSEE-derived columns reconcile through our code end-to-end; modeled and operator-announced columns are flagged, never recomputed. 4. Five discrepancies were found and are documented with WED evidence and side-by-side comparison tables for QA hand-back (§4). 5. Free BOEM reserves + discovery dates are now in our refresh pipeline (§5.1), which surfaced one substantive reserves discrepancy on Stones to resolve with the article team. 6. Open asks to the article team (§5): STOIIP basis, cost-deck vintage, and the appraisal-well definition. 7. Refreshing to the current WAR vintage adds only 53 D&C days (Big Foot +33, Stones +20) — all late-life well-servicing on wells drilled years ago; the nine matched developments are unchanged since the article's Nov-2025 cutoff (§3.1).
#1. Headline finding
The article's four tables are this repository's FDAS V30 model output: financial_project_summary.xlsx reproduces Tables 1 and 2 column-for-column (spud dates 9/9, wellbores, D&C days, oil volumes and revenues in band). Validation therefore splits cleanly:
- BSEE-derived columns (wells, sidetracks, spud dates, D&C days, produced oil, revenue) — reconciled by re-running our own code against BSEE WAR + OGOR-A raw data. These we can defend end-to-end.
- Modeled columns (cost deck, NPV10) — flagged as model output on the V30 assumptions deck (
lease_assumptions.xlsx); reproduced by our code but only as good as the deck. - Announced/external columns (STOIIP, some recoverable-reserve figures) — operator press figures; no government source exists for STOIIP. Cited as theirs, never recomputed.
#2. Table-by-table disposition
| Table | Content | BSEE-derived verdict | Modeled / announced |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Well metrics (wells, sidetracks, D&C days) | ✅ reconciles — see §3 | costs = V30 deck |
| 2 | Project financials | ✅ spud dates 9/9 exact; oil/revenue in band | NPV10 = V30 deck |
| 3 | BSEE dataset summary | ✅ mean project NPV −$1.19B reproduced | appraisal-well subset definition is theirs |
| 4 | STOIIP / recovery | ✅ recovered volumes match 7/9 (see discrepancies D1, D5) | STOIIP wholly external — see §5 |
#3. Field-level D&C reconciliation (Table 1)
On the latest (V50/wed) basis, D&C is fully reconciled: V50 = wed to the day, Δ = 0 for every field (same byte-identical extractor, same WAR). The per-field drilling / completion / D&C split (V30 / V50 / wed + discrepancy) is on the comparison page §4.4. The table below reconciles our extraction against the article as published.
Our full-raw candidate extraction (canonical extractor reading raw BSEE WAR .bin; wed PR #851, issue #842) vs the article, total D&C days:
The Δ since Nov '25 column (added 2026-07-06) reports, of our current D&C total, how many days accrued after the article's November-2025 data cutoff — computed by re-running the canonical extractor against the 2026-02-19 WAR vintage twice (uncapped vs. capped at 2025-11-30) and differencing; see the delta-increase analysis in §3.1.
| Development | WED bores | WO bores | WED D&C | WO D&C | Δ vs WO | Δ since Nov '25 | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anchor | 17 | 17 | 1,825 | 1,825 | 0 | 0 | exact |
| Cascade Chinook | 14 | 14 | 2,467 | 2,467 | 0 | 0 | exact |
| Stones | 22 | 22 | 2,625 | 2,625 | 0 | +20 | exact vs WO; +20 post-cutoff well-servicing days (§3.1) |
| Julia | 9 | 9 | 1,687 | 1,687 | 0 | 0 | exact |
| Kaskida | 7 | 7 | 841 | 841 | 0 | 0 | exact |
| Tiber | 2 | 2 | 250 | 250 | 0 | 0 | exact |
| North Platte | 23 | 20 | 971 | 971 | 0 | 0 | days exact; +3 zero-day sidetracks |
| Shenandoah | 23 | 23 | 2,370 | 2,346 | +24 | 0 | resolved (frozen V30 was −357); Δ pre-dates cutoff |
| Buckskin | 25 | 24 | 2,056 | 2,004 | +52 | 0 | recovered — was missing entirely (shelf-only extract) |
| Jack St Malo | 73 | 73 | 7,047 | 6,928 | +119 | 0 | open — suspect over-counted post-TD completion days; deferred bug #846 |
| Big Foot | 38 | — | 3,265 | — | — | +33 | WED-only: article excluded Big Foot; +33 post-cutoff well-servicing days (§3.1) |
| Total (all 11) | 25,404 | +53 | 253 wells; +53 days since the Nov-2025 cutoff |
Fidelity anchor: the candidate extraction reproduces the frozen V30 workbook exactly on Anchor (821 drilling / 1,004 completion days), pinned by tests/integration/test_kc_ingest_fidelity.py. Candidate totals: 253 wells / 25,404 D&C days across 26 leases, 11 developments.
The like-for-like frozen-V30 reconciliation (217 wells, 22,478 WED vs 21,944 WO D&C days; matched-9 −2.5%) lives on the verification page and in scripts/completion/build_completion_report.py (WO_APRIL_2026_ARTICLE frozen benchmark).
#3.1 D&C days accrued since the article's Nov-2025 cutoff
The article's Table 1 was built on BSEE WAR data through November 2025. Our current extract reads the 2026-02-19 WAR vintage (latest rig-on-well activity 2026-02-16). To isolate what the newer data adds, the canonical extractor was re-run twice — once uncapped (which reproduces the WED D&C column above *to the day*: 25,404 total) and once with every WAR activity interval capped at 2025-11-30 — and the two differenced. The gap is the D&C days accrued after the article's cutoff:
| Development | WED D&C (Feb-2026 vintage) | …capped at 2025-11-30 | Δ since Nov '25 | Nature of the added days | Latest activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Foot | 3,265 | 3,232 | +33 | post-TD rig-days on one well (TD 2020) | 2026-01-02 |
| Stones | 2,625 | 2,605 | +20 | post-TD rig-days on three wells (TD 2018–2022) | 2025-12-17 |
| All nine other developments | — | — | 0 | no rig-on-well activity after the cutoff | ≤ 2025-09-29 |
| Total | 25,404 | 25,351 | +53 | 2026-02-16 |
Findings from the delta-increase analysis:
1. The increment is small and concentrated: 53 D&C days, entirely on Big Foot (+33) and Stones (+20). Every other Lower-Tertiary development shows zero post-cutoff activity in our feed — the article's November-2025 window already captured essentially all of their drilling and completion. 2. All 53 added days are completion-phase, none drilling (drill_delta = 0 for every well). Each traces to rig-on-well days on wells that reached total depth years ago (Big Foot 2020; Stones 2018–2022), so they are late-life well-servicing / intervention days, not new-well D&C — swept in by the extractor's simplified rule that counts every rig-day after TD as "completion" (the same accounting behaviour tracked for Jack St Malo in #846). 3. None of the WED-vs-article Δ days in §3 come from this newer data. Shenandoah (+24), Buckskin (+52) and Jack St Malo (+119) all pre-date the cutoff (latest activity 2025-09, 2024-05 and 2025-05 respectively); those differences are recompletion accounting, the Buckskin recovery, and the JSM over-count — orthogonal to the data vintage. Refreshing to the Feb-2026 vintage therefore leaves the reconciliation of the nine matched developments unchanged, and the article stands as printed for them.
*Reproduce:* re-run docs/modules/bsee/analysis/production/FDAS_V30/extract_drilling_completion_days.py against the 2026-02-19 WAR .bin feed with leases_v21_kc.csv, applying an activity-day > 2025-11-30 filter on the same WAR_START_DT/WAR_END_DT daily index the extractor already unions.
#4. Discrepancies found in the article (QA hand-back)
Surfaced by the BSEE-grounded cross-check. Each discrepancy gets its own side-by-side comparison table (same treatment as the §3 day-count table) so the exact cell where the two bases diverge is visible at a glance. Every WED figure is computed by repository code from the canonical workbook (financial_project_summary.xlsx) or raw BSEE OGOR-A; per-field detail lives on the live economics pages linked in each table.
Summary:
| # | Discrepancy | WED evidence (detail below) |
|---|---|---|
| D1 | Table 4 prints recovered = "1" for Anchor and Shenandoah — looks like a placeholder that survived into print; it also disagrees with the article's own Table 2 production values | BSEE OGOR-A cumulative oil for both fields is material and growing month-on-month — §4.1 |
| D2 | The Stones NPV/NCF entries match the Tiber row to the dollar — consistent with a row-copy slip during table assembly | WED canonical Tiber NPV equals the printed "Stones" value exactly; the real Stones values are far larger in magnitude — §4.2 |
| D3 | Cascade Chinook net cash flow prints positive while its own NPV prints negative — the underlying revenue/OPEX stack cannot produce a positive NCF | Full cash-stack rebuild from the canonical workbook — §4.3 |
| D4 | Julia and Stones OPEX print as zero for fields producing since 2016 | Lifetime variable + fixed OPEX from the canonical workbook — §4.4 |
| D5 | Jack St Malo recovery factor prints 10% where the article's own recovered/recoverable figures give 8.4% | Arithmetic on the article's own Table 4 cells; WED OGOR-A cumulative confirms the recovered figure — §4.5 |
#4.1 D1 — Table 4 "recovered" for Anchor and Shenandoah
| Development | WO Table 4 recovered (MMbbl) | WED, frozen V30 window (thru 2025-05) | WED, latest OGOR-A | WED evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anchor | 1 | 6.9 | 18.6 | Anchor economics (live) · financial_project_summary.xlsx Project_Summary · field_economics_anchor_v50.md |
| Shenandoah | 1 | 0.004 (first oil 2025-02; window ends 2025-05) | 21.2 | Shenandoah economics (live) · field_economics_shenandoah_v50.md |
Both fields' produced volumes are material in the BSEE record and rising month-on-month, so "1" reads as a stale placeholder rather than a data point — and Table 2 of the article itself carries production for both.
#4.2 D2 — Stones NPV/NCF entries match the Tiber row exactly
| Metric ($M) | WO prints for "Stones" | WED canonical Tiber | WED canonical Stones |
|---|---|---|---|
| NPV @10% | −228 | −228.0 | −1,479.5 (V30; −1,461 on the V50 latest-OGOR rerun) |
| Net cash flow | −275 | −275.0 | −3,305.5 |
The printed "Stones" values equal WED's Tiber row to the dollar (Tiber: two exploration bores, never developed — small numbers by construction). The real Stones values are roughly six to twelve times larger in magnitude. WED evidence: Stones economics (live) · financial_project_summary.xlsx sheets Stones / Tiber.
#4.3 D3 — Cascade Chinook net cash flow cannot be positive
| Cash-stack line ($M, lifetime thru 2025-05) | WED canonical |
|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,326.9 |
| − Royalty | 436.3 |
| − OPEX (variable 137.3 + fixed 1,700.0) | 1,837.3 |
| = Margin before capital | +53.3 |
| − Host CAPEX | 1,200.0 |
| − SURF | 600.0 |
| − Drilling + completion cost | 1,973.6 |
| = Net cash flow | −3,820.3 |
| WO prints | +3,656 |
With barely break-even lifetime margin before capital, no assignment of the capital stack can produce a positive NCF — and the article's own NPV for the same field prints negative (−1,122), which is internally inconsistent with a positive NCF of that size. WED evidence: Cascade–Chinook economics (live) · financial_project_summary.xlsx sheet Cascade Chinook.
#4.4 D4 — Julia and Stones OPEX print as zero
| Development (producing since) | WO OPEX ($M) | WED variable | WED fixed | WED total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julia (2016) | 0 | 425.6 | 693.8 | 1,119.4 |
| Stones (2016) | 0 | 334.6 | 1,275.0 | 1,609.6 |
Both fields have produced continuously for roughly a decade; zero lifetime OPEX is not plausible on any basis. WED evidence: Julia economics (live) · Stones economics (live) · financial_project_summary.xlsx sheets Julia / Stones.
#4.5 D5 — Jack St Malo recovery factor
| Quantity | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Recovered (article's own Table 4) | 420 MMbbl | WO Table 4 |
| Recoverable/STOIIP basis (article's own Table 4) | 5,000 MMbbl | WO Table 4 |
| Implied recovery factor | 8.4% | 420 ÷ 5,000 |
| Printed recovery factor | 10% | WO Table 4 |
| WED OGOR-A cumulative oil (V30 window) | 406.6 MMbbl | financial_project_summary.xlsx; consistent with ~420 at the latest OGOR-A month |
Pure arithmetic on the article's own cells; the recovered figure itself checks out against WED. WED evidence: Jack / St. Malo economics (live).
#4.6 Project-cost basis (full stack, per development)
The article's Table 1/2 cost columns are the V30 assumptions deck (lease_assumptions.xlsx) run through our model — so this table IS the WED side of any cost comparison. If any article cost cell disagrees, the divergent cell locates exactly where the bases differ (and feeds ask §5.2, deck vintage). All values $M, lifetime thru 2025-05, from financial_project_summary.xlsx Project_Summary:
| Development | Host CAPEX | SURF | Boost/WI pumps | Dry-well system | Facilities total | Drilling cost | Completion cost | D&C total | Revenue | Royalty | OPEX | NCF | NPV @10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anchor | 1,500 | 700 | 0 | 0 | 2,400 | 657 | 1,104 | 1,761 | 476 | 89 | 167 | −3,941 | −1,733 |
| Big Foot | 2,000 | 0 | 0 | 630 | 2,730 | 966 | 822 | 1,787 | 4,738 | 888 | 1,058 | −1,725 | −1,063 |
| Cascade Chinook | 1,200 | 600 | 0 | 0 | 1,900 | 964 | 1,010 | 1,974 | 2,327 | 436 | 1,837 | −3,820 | −1,474 |
| Jack St Malo | 1,200 | 5,200 | 900 | 0 | 7,400 | 2,359 | 3,091 | 5,450 | 25,649 | 4,809 | 3,201 | +4,788 | −881 |
| Julia | 0 | 1,000 | 275 | 0 | 1,375 | 642 | 708 | 1,350 | 4,715 | 884 | 1,119 | −13 | −531 |
| Kaskida | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 612 | 314 | 925 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −925 | −625 |
| North Platte | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 743 | 326 | 1,068 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1,068 | −784 |
| Shenandoah | 1,500 | 350 | 0 | 0 | 2,050 | 990 | 826 | 1,817 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 13 | −3,879 | −1,166 |
| Stones | 1,200 | 2,400 | 450 | 0 | 4,150 | 1,166 | 916 | 2,082 | 5,582 | 1,047 | 1,610 | −3,306 | −1,480 |
| Tiber | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 235 | 40 | 275 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −275 | −228 |
(Boost/WI pumps = booster + water-injection pump capital combined; OPEX = variable + fixed. Pre-FID fields carry exploration/appraisal D&C only.)
#4.7 Project financials — full WED model output (the article's Table 2 equivalent)
The complete per-development financial summary from the same canonical workbook, published so the article team can inspect the WED side of every Table 2 cell and gain confidence in the tables we produce. Production and wells are BSEE-derived (OGOR-A / WAR); dollars are the V30 model on the assumptions deck; all money in $M, lifetime thru 2025-05:
| Development | First oil | Oil produced (MMbbl) | Producer / injector wells | Total bores | Revenue | Royalty | OPEX | Net cash flow | NPV @10% | MIRR (annual) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anchor | 2024-08 | 6.9 | 2 / 0 | 15 | 476 | 89 | 167 | −3,941 | −1,733 | −17.7% |
| Big Foot | 2018-11 | 66.9 | 7 / 1 | 38 | 4,738 | 888 | 1,058 | −1,725 | −1,063 | 3.5% |
| Cascade Chinook | 2014-01 | 34.3 | 3 / 0 | 14 | 2,327 | 436 | 1,837 | −3,820 | −1,474 | −1.8% |
| Jack St Malo | 2014-12 | 406.6 | 22 / 4 | 73 | 25,649 | 4,809 | 3,201 | +4,788 | −881 | 8.5% |
| Julia | 2016-03 | 70.9 | 4 / 0 | 9 | 4,715 | 884 | 1,119 | −13 | −531 | 6.3% |
| Kaskida | pre-FID | 0 | 0 / 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −925 | −625 | — |
| North Platte | pre-FID | 0 | 0 / 0 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1,068 | −784 | — |
| Shenandoah | 2025-02 | 0.004 | 1 / 0 | 23 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 13 | −3,879 | −1,166 | — |
| Stones | 2016-09 | 83.7 | 10 / 2 | 22 | 5,582 | 1,047 | 1,610 | −3,306 | −1,480 | 2.7% |
| Tiber | never | 0 | 0 / 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −275 | −228 | — |
Cross-checks a reader can do immediately: the D2 duplicate row is visible here (Tiber's −275 / −228 are the values the article prints for Stones); D3's Cascade Chinook NCF is here in context; D4's OPEX columns are non-zero for Julia and Stones; Table 3's mean project NPV (−$1.19B) is the average of the NPV column. Per-field monthly cash-flow detail: the live economics pages (Anchor · Big Foot · Cascade–Chinook · Jack/St. Malo · Julia · Shenandoah · Stones) and the portfolio summary. Sanctioned-baseline figures are CI-guarded against golden_baseline_v30.yml — see capabilities § validation.
#5. Open asks to Roy / Chuck (their inputs, cited as theirs)
1. STOIIP source for Table 4 *(hard gap)* — no BOEM/BSEE source exists for STOIIP/OOIP; public record is operator FID press only (Buckskin ~5 Bbbl, Julia 6 Bbbl, Stones >2 Bboe, Tiber 4–6 Bbbl; Cascade/Chinook has no clean public figure). Need their basis for a consistent column. 2. Cost / rate-deck vintage confirmation — are Table 1/2 costs the V30 lease_assumptions.xlsx deck we hold, or a revised deck? 3. Complete recoverable-reserves (STB) set + appraisal-well definition — we hold a few in BOE. BOEM's free Reserves Inventory (field-level, 31-Dec-2023 vintage) + Deepwater Qualified Fields (discovery/first-oil dates) are NOW IN the refresh pipeline (#847, landed 2026-07-06 — see §5.1); WO Table 4 recoverable figures for Anchor 440 / JSM 500 / Stones 250 match operator press exactly, but BOEM's booked figure for Stones does not (§5.1) — which basis does the article intend?
#5.1 BOEM cross-check (added 2026-07-06, #847 implementation)
The free BOEM Reserves Inventory (Table 4, 31-Dec-2023 vintage) is now in the refresh pipeline; curated output data/modules/offshore_assets/curated/lt_reserves_discovery.csv. Cross-check against the WO Table 4 / operator-announced recoverable figures (all MMBOE):
| Development | BOEM original (mean) | Operator/WO announced | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jack St Malo | 550.6 | 500 | consistent (+10%) |
| Stones | 128.3 | 250 | −48.7% — discrepancy flagged (lt_reserves_discrepancies.csv); ask Roy/Chuck which basis WO intends |
| Anchor | not booked in 2023 vintage (FO 2024) | 440 | BOEM cross-check possible from the next vintage |
| Buckskin | 456.6 | — (WO carries no figure) | BOEM fills the gap |
| Big Foot / Cascade Chinook / Julia | 176.9 / 74.0 / 127.6 | — | new BOEM columns |
| Kaskida / North Platte / Tiber / Shenandoah | not booked (pre-FID / FO 2025) | — | rows kept with vintage caveat |
Discovery + first-production dates now sourced from BSEE Deepwater Qualified Fields (weekly cadence), field-level first-prod preferred (per-lease dates can post-date field first oil — Buckskin 2019-06 vs a 2026 lease date).
#6. Provenance and versioning
- V30 = frozen baseline (2025-09-29 workbook; production window thru 2025-05). V50 = rerun on latest OGOR-A (2026-06-26; window thru 2026-04, +11 months). wed = the canonical toolset (2026-07-06) that reproduces V30 and carries the V50 window on one code path. D&C days are WAR-derived and identical under all three — the Table 1 reconciliation is version-independent (
reports/lower_tertiary/v30_vs_v50_comparison.md). - Owner decision (2026-07-06, noted on #842): the full-raw extraction supersedes V30 as canonical D&C once Roy confirms this validation; consumers (
v30_reproducer,financial/config_loader) migrate then. - Every "WED" number in this report is computed by repository code from BSEE raw data (WAR + OGOR-A). Numbers we could not recompute in-session are tagged with their recorded source.
#6.1 Revision lineage (V30 → V50 → wed) and canonical basis
The full three-way comparison — scripts, inputs, months of BSEE data, result tables, script-by-script differences, the missed-file inventory, and an adversarial bug review — is its own living page: FDAS revision comparison. Summary:
| Dimension | V30 (2025-09-29) | V50 (2026-06-26) | wed (2026-07-06) |
|---|---|---|---|
| BSEE production window | 2000-09 → 2025-05 | 2000-09 → 2026-04 (+11 mo) | reproduces both |
| D&C extractor | md5 1b89c23e | identical | identical (version-independent) |
ogora_to_chronological | V23_001 | rewrite Version 008 | ships old V23_001 |
| Financial generator | _V30 (pre-tax) | _V50 (after-tax) | _V30 (V50 not committed) |
| lease_assumptions | baseline | 13 cost cells changed | V30 values (not propagated) |
| Result workbook | shipped .xlsx | none shipped | YAML + markdown reports |
| Portfolio NPV @10 % | −$8,327.8 MM | −$7,895.3 MM (+$432.5 MM) | reproduces both |
Roy's V50 script has now been run and reconciled field-by-field against wed (2026-07-07; full tables on the comparison page §4.4–§4.6). Headline result, to verify D&C and financials on the latest (V50/wed) basis:
| Check | Result |
|---|---|
| D&C days (D, C, D&C per field) | V50 = wed exactly — Δ = 0 for every field (byte-identical extractor, same WAR); 253 wells / 25,404 D&C |
| Produced oil | V50 = wed, all fields (same OGOR-A window) |
| NPV @10% | 7 producers within −$103M…+$197M (the 13 cost cells); 3 exploration-only fields exact; Jack St Malo −$3.1B — the sole material gap |
| After-tax vs pre-tax | small, real — severance/ad-valorem = 0, but 21% corporate tax hits the 3 fields with positive *lifetime* cash flow: JSM −$103M NPV, Julia −$4.4M, Buckskin −$3.9M; the other 8 (negative cash flow) pay none |
| Article Table-2 errata | Roy's V50 script corrects them (Stones≠Tiber, Cascade NCF sign, zero-OPEX) — his code agrees with §4.1–§4.5 here |
The one open item for the article team: the Jack St Malo gap is ≈ $3.0B the NPV discount-reference convention (Roy discounts "from Day 1 / first spud" (2000), wed from first cashflow; JSM's 14-year spud→first-oil gap makes it swing) plus ~$103M corporate tax; undiscounted cash flows reconcile. (The 13 cost cells account for only ±$100–200M per field; severance/ad-valorem are 0; the 21% corporate tax is a small real effect on the 3 fields with positive lifetime cash flow. NPV-negative does not imply zero tax.)
#7. Related work
| Ref | What |
|---|---|
| wed #841 (merged) | /completion/ Total-D&C column + verification page |
| wed #843 (merged) | like-for-like reframe + Buckskin identity surfaced |
| wed #851 (merged) | KC deepwater ingest — raw .bin extractor + Buckskin leases + fidelity tests |
| wed #852 (merged) | benchmark renamed "World Oil April 2026 article" on the live pages |
| wed #861 (merged) | #847 implementation: BOEM reserves + discovery in the refresh pipeline; curated lt_reserves_discovery.csv |
| wed #842 | KC ingest issue; V30-supersede decision recorded (open pending article-team confirmation) |
| wed #844 | living cost-basis time-series |
| wed #846 | JSM D&C overshoot (+119) |
| wed #847 (closed) | BOEM reserves + discovery-date ingest |
| wed #855 | future BOEM source family (field monthly production, reserve history 1975–2023, older vintages) |
| wshub #3385 | "Verified against references & baselines" section epic |
#8. Change log (session notes — the durable record)
| Date | What happened |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Article-team QA question received (well-days basis). Root cause found the same day: our /completion/ page headlined drilling-only days; true D&C total reconciles (§3). PR #841: verification page + Total-D&C column shipped. |
| 2026-07-06 | Consistency review found the original headline comparison was not like-for-like (offsetting Big Foot-vs-Buckskin); reframed via PR #843. Buckskin identity recovered (six Keathley Canyon leases; the shelf-only extract had dropped it). |
| 2026-07-06 | All four article tables validated against financial_project_summary.xlsx (§1–2); five discrepancies documented with comparison tables (§4); STOIIP confirmed to have no government source (§5). |
| 2026-07-06 | KC deepwater ingest landed (PR #851): canonical extractor reads raw WAR .bin; Buckskin becomes a matched row (§3); Anchor fidelity pinned exactly by test. Benchmark renamed to "World Oil April 2026 article" everywhere (PR #852). This report committed (PR #853). |
| 2026-07-06 | BOEM reserves + discovery ingest landed (#847 / PR #861, plan #854 with two adversarial review rounds): annual Table 4 workbook + Deepwater Qualified Fields on refresh cadence; curated per-development table with citation columns; Stones reserves discrepancy surfaced (§5.1). Follow-on source family filed as #855. |
| 2026-07-06 | Delta-increase analysis added (§3.1): current 2026-02-19 WAR vintage vs the article's Nov-2025 cutoff yields +53 D&C days (Big Foot +33, Stones +20), all post-TD well-servicing; Table 1 gains a Δ since Nov '25 column. Section permalinks + an "On this page" contents nav added to the page. |
| 2026-07-06 | Migrated the model basis to V50 (latest OGOR-A) with V30 as the frozen reference; added §6.1 revision lineage and a full companion page (FDAS revision comparison) covering the three-revision comparison, V30→V50 script differences, missed-file inventory, and an adversarial bug review of the wed scripts (V30/V50 source archives backed up to /mnt/ace/.../fdas_revisions/). Surfaced two reconciliation items for the article team: pre-tax vs after-tax, and 13 changed V50 cost cells. |