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Deterministic core No API key Public BSEE data

Anchor Field Economics

Per-well and field-level NPV from public BSEE data.

Provenance. Computed by a monthly cashflow model (build_field_npv_timeline) over public BSEE OGOR-A production and drilling records, life-to-date through the latest available OGOR-A month.

Data limits & honest caveats

The NPV shown is the model truth, presented as-is — not reframed as value-positive. Every Lower-Tertiary field here is NPV-negative at a 10% discount rate life-to-date. Operation markers (drilling/completion dates) are annotations only and do not feed the cashflow model.

#Anchor Field Economics Report

Development: Anchor (subsea20) · Lease: 2 leases (G31751, G31752) · First oil: 2024-08-01 · Discount rate: 10% annual

Data window: 2000-09 -> 2026-04

#Summary

On public BSEE production + cost data, Anchor is NPV-negative at 10% life-to-date: terminal cumulative NPV $-1,586.9 M.

Generated from public BSEE OGOR-A production and drilling/WAR records run through a monthly cashflow + trimmed-discount model (build_field_npv_timeline), covering field life through the latest available BSEE OGOR-A month. The NPV timeline below is an additive presentation layer over that model; it does not alter the computed final NPV.

#NPV Timeline

Cumulative discounted NPV evolution over field life, with critical well operations annotated. Terminal cumulative NPV = $-1,586.9 M.

Cumulative NPV path (by year): █▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▆▄▁▁▁ start $-145M → trough $-1,797M (2024) → latest $-1,587M

Year Net Cashflow ($MM) Cumulative NPV ($MM) Critical Operations
2014-149.6-144.5Drilling (spud): 001
Sidetrack: 001 (608114062100)
Plug & abandon: 001 (608114062101)
Drilling (spud): 002
Temporary abandonment: 002 (608114063500)
2015-37.6-177.4Sidetrack: 002 (608114063500)
Drilling (spud): 002
Sidetrack: 002 (608114063501)
Plug & abandon: 002 (608114063502)
2016-166.4-311.3Drilling (spud): 001
Drilling (spud): 003
Sidetrack: 003 (608114067300)
2017-18.4-325.3Plug & abandon: 003 (608114067301)
20180.0-325.3
2019-5.6-328.6Drilling (spud): SB001
Plug & abandon: SB001 (608114072800)
20200.0-328.6
2021-19.2-337.7Drilling (spud): AP001
2022-406.9-518.8Temporary abandonment: AP001 (608114075000)
Drilling (spud): AP002
2023-860.4-872.9Temporary abandonment: AP002 (608114075100)
Drilling (spud): BP003
2024-2,459.7-1,797.0Completion: AP001 (608114075000)
Temporary abandonment: BP003 (608114077400)
Well online (first production): API 608114075000
Completion: AP002 (608114075100)
Well online (first production): API 608114075100
2025435.5-1,648.4
2026192.5-1,586.9Well online (first production): API 608114076101

#Critical Operations Detail

Date Operation Well Cumulative NPV at event ($MM)
2014-03-16Drilling (spud)001-12.8
2014-05-25Sidetrack001 (608114062100)-52.4
2014-05-28Drilling (spud)001-52.4
2014-07-20Plug & abandon001 (608114062101)-62.5
2014-08-12Drilling (spud)002-77.9
2014-12-14Temporary abandonment002 (608114063500)-144.5
2015-07-05Sidetrack002 (608114063500)-157.9
2015-07-09Drilling (spud)002-157.9
2015-08-09Sidetrack002 (608114063501)-170.5
2015-08-14Drilling (spud)002-170.5
2015-09-20Plug & abandon002 (608114063502)-177.4
2016-01-26Drilling (spud)001-181.4
2016-02-26Drilling (spud)001-190.8
2016-09-17Drilling (spud)003-270.9
2016-12-04Drilling (spud)003-311.3
2016-12-04Sidetrack003 (608114067300)-311.3
2017-02-12Plug & abandon003 (608114067301)-325.3
2019-11-19Drilling (spud)SB001-328.6
2019-11-24Plug & abandonSB001 (608114072800)-328.6
2021-12-08Drilling (spud)AP001-337.7
2022-04-10Temporary abandonmentAP001 (608114075000)-364.9
2022-11-16Drilling (spud)AP002-480.9
2023-03-19Temporary abandonmentAP002 (608114075100)-611.4
2023-11-26Drilling (spud)BP003-818.0
2024-03-10CompletionAP001 (608114075000)-1,051.9
2024-06-02Temporary abandonmentBP003 (608114077400)-1,213.7
2024-08-01Well online (first production)API 608114075000-1,776.5
2024-08-18CompletionAP002 (608114075100)-1,776.5
2024-11-01Well online (first production)API 608114075100-1,803.6
2026-04-01Well online (first production)API 608114076101-1,586.9

Operations are derived deterministically from BSEE Well Activity Reports (bin/war/) and OGOR-A first-production dates (BSEE OGOR-A pickled .bin DataFrames (zip archives absent in checkout)). Activity codes: DRL=drilling, COM=completion, WO=workover, REC=recompletion, ST=sidetrack; re-entries detected via API completion-suffix changes on a shared wellbore. Markers are annotations only and do not feed the cashflow model.


#Well-Level NPV Stackup

Field terminal NPV decomposed into per-well contributions that sum exactly to the field total. Field NPV = $-1,586.9 M; sum of per-well net NPV = $-1,586.9 M (residual $0.0000).

Rank Well (API) Name Oil (MMbbl) Gross well NPV ($MM) Allocated shared cost ($MM) Net well NPV ($MM) % of field NPV
1608114075100AP0029.8979.9-889.6-809.751.0%
2608114075000AP0018.43-2.4-758.3-760.747.9%
36081140761010.256.0-22.5-16.61.0%
Reading the ranking. Under production-pro-rata allocation, the largest producer absorbs the most shared capital — so the highest-output well can show the *most negative* net NPV. The Gross well NPV column reflects standalone operating performance; the Net well NPV column reflects each well's share of the fully-loaded field (which is NPV-negative overall, so every well's net is negative). Bottom line: a negative *net* NPV here is an allocation outcome on an NPV-negative field, not a verdict on the well's own performance — read the Gross well NPV column for standalone results.

Per-well net NPV (signed bars; █ = value-additive, ▓ = drag):

AP002      -809.7 M  ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓
AP001      -760.7 M  ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓
608114076101    -16.6 M  ▓

Interactive NPV waterfalls → — two views: an over-time NPV bridge (each year's change in cumulative NPV, with the biggest swings annotated by the events that drove them) and this per-well stackup (each well's net NPV stepping to the field total). Hover any bar for detail. Rebuild with uv run --with plotly python scripts/lower_tertiary/build_npv_stackup_chart.py --dev Anchor.

Block scope: Single OGOR block (GC 807) for this development; block-level NPV decomposition is not applicable (identical to the field total).

The stackup covers the 2 producing wells. The field's 15 total wellbores also include appraisal and sidetrack/re-drill bores; their drilling & completion capital is part of the shared cost allocated pro-rata (it is not attributed to a single producer).

Allocation assumption. Shared field costs (facilities, fixed opex, host) and the drilling/completion cost of non-producing bores (appraisal/sidetrack wells with no production to stand against) are pooled and allocated to the producing wells pro-rata by each well's share of total field oil production. Each producing well's own revenue, royalty, variable opex, and directly-resolvable D&C are attributed to it. Per-well NPVs sum to the field NPV.


#Well Geometry (3D)

Interactive 3D well-path views — minimum-curvature trajectories from BSEE directional surveys, rendered with Plotly and Three.js — are in development for this field. When verified they will live at:

They are intentionally not linked yet: the geometry render must first be confirmed to cover the same lease-resolved producers shown in the NPV stackup above (same APIs, same field), so the economics and the well paths never describe different wells.


#Financial Summary

Life-to-date field economics on public BSEE data (2000-09 -> 2026-04). D&C and facilities are one-time capital already incurred; revenue, royalty and opex accrue with production.

Metric Value
Revenue$1,279.2 M
Royalty$239.8 M
Variable opex$111.4 M
Fixed opex$262.5 M
D&C cost$1,761.2 M
Facilities cost$2,400.0 M
Net cashflow (undiscounted)$-3,495.7 M
NPV @ 10%$-1,586.9 M
MIRR (annual)-7.69%
Producers2
Injectors0
Wellbores15

Return metric: MIRR is the return measure used for these developments, not IRR. Deepwater Lower-Tertiary cashflows are heavily front-loaded (large D&C + facilities outflows, then a long production tail), so the net-cashflow sign changes more than once and the IRR polynomial can have multiple — or no — real roots; MIRR (single reinvestment/finance rate at the 10% discount rate) is well-defined and unambiguous. NPV @ 10% remains the primary value metric.

Source-of-record: public BSEE OGOR-A production, drilling and WAR records, run through the field cashflow model.


#Price Sensitivity

NPV is linear in the oil price deck: each +$1/bbl on the realized oil price moves field NPV by $+5.1 M. Life-to-date NPV reaches zero at a flat-equivalent realized WTI of $380/bbl, versus the actual volume-weighted realized $69/bbl over the window.

Flat-equivalent realized WTI ($/bbl) NPV @ 10% ($MM)
49-1,688.8
59-1,637.9
69 ← actual-1,586.9
79-1,535.9
89-1,485.0

Exact, not sampled: NPV is affine in a uniform price multiplier (revenue and royalty scale with price; variable/fixed opex, D&C, facilities and discounting do not), so one base run plus one scaled run define the entire line. 'Flat-equivalent realized WTI' is the volume-weighted average price; the underlying deck is the historical monthly WTI path.


#Next Steps

  # 1. refresh the latest BSEE OGOR-A production (2025 + current year)
  uv run python scripts/refresh_bsee_ogor_recent.py
  # 2. regenerate this report (latest window is the default;
  #    leases are auto-derived for the field)
  uv run python scripts/lower_tertiary/generate_field_economics_report.py --dev Anchor