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BSEE WAR activity codes · epic #1063 · Stones (WR 508)

Does the WAR rig-day basis agree with the owner?

Every reference figure the domain owner has given us for rig days, recomputed on the new war_rig_days basis, with the disagreement quantified. The headline is not the agreement — it is the coverage: how little of the 22-bore Stones population any owner figure actually reaches.

Not a broader QA — the independent evidence base is still one wellbore
Basis DRL_COM · inclusive · adjacency-merged
Population 22 bores · 18 wells
Reference figures found 19
Wellbores an owner figure reaches 1 of 22
Independent anchors
9
all on one bore — 608124009500
Exact agreement
4/8
checkable hand-worked figures; 3 more within one WAR week
Bore coverage
1/22
Stones bores with any owner day figure
Change we are proposing
-946d
Stones D&C, WAR basis vs published

1 · The verdict

No. This is not a more established QA.

The repository contains 19 reference figures bearing on rig days, 13 of them attributable to the owner. Sorted by what they can actually prove, they collapse to a single wellbore.

The independent evidence base is unchanged: one wellbore, 608124009500 (Stones SN105). It is the only bore the owner worked through by hand, from the raw WAR record, without running any code of ours. Every other owner figure is either the output of his own extractor — which encodes the calendar spud→TD definition the new basis is replacing — or a World Oil table that was itself built from this repository's model output, and so cannot independently confirm anything about it.

The 22-bore Stones list is owner-supplied and does widen the population we can compute over. It does not widen the population we can check. Twenty-one of the twenty-two bores below are computed-only and are labelled as such.

What did strengthen. On the one bore we can check, the new basis lands materially closer to the owner's hand count than the number we publish today: he counted 93 completion days from the daily remarks; the WAR basis gives 94 for the same post-re-entry rig period (2015-10-15 → 2016-01-16), against 152 on the currently published basis. That is a 1-day gap replacing a 59-day one.

2 · Every owner figure we could find

The anchor ledger

Grouped by evidence tier. Every row cites the committed file it came from; none of these numbers were reconstructed, inferred or rounded to improve agreement. Where we cannot compute the same quantity, the row says so rather than substituting a proxy.

SubjectFigureSourceOwnerOursΔAgreementHow we compute it
Owner, hand-worked from the raw WAR record — Can validate the new basis.
608124009500 · Stones SN105Spud daterig_days_by_milestone.md:162014-07-242014-07-24exactWAR WELL_ACTV_START_DT · Identifies the record set, not the day rule.
608124009500 · Stones SN105Total-depth daterig_days_by_milestone.md:162014-12-262014-12-26exactWAR TOTAL_DEPTH_DATE · Identifies the record set, not the day rule.
608124009500 · Stones SN105Total measured depthrig_days_by_milestone.md:1631225 ft312250exactmax DRILLING_MD · Physical attribute — confirms we read the same records.
608124009500 · Stones SN105True vertical depthrig_days_by_milestone.md:1628307 ft28306-1within roundingmax DRILLING_TVD · Physical attribute — confirms we read the same records.
608124009500 · Stones SN105Max mud weightrig_days_by_milestone.md:1614.0 ppg140exactmax DRILL_FLUID_WGT · Physical attribute — confirms we read the same records.
608124009500 · Stones SN105Bottom-hole pressurerig_days_by_milestone.md:1620607 psin/anot checkableno such column in WAR · No bottom-hole-pressure column exists on mv_war_main or mv_war_main_prop — not checkable from WAR.
608124009500 · Stones SN105Drilling days (his milestone rule)rig_days_by_milestone.md:16155 d151-4within one WAR weekWAR DRL, merged · Calendar TD − spud, exclusive. Compared against WAR DRL.
608124009500 · Stones SN105Completion days (his remark count)rig_days_by_milestone.md:3993 d94+1within one WAR weekTA stub + COM from the re-entry · "93 days of date column" — distinct daily remark dates after the rig returned on 2015-10-15.
608124009500 · Stones SN105D&C days totalrig_days_by_milestone.md:41248 d245-3within one WAR weekDRL + post-re-entry · His own addition, 155 + 93.
Owner-shipped script output (his rule, our data) — Measures the size of the change, not its correctness — it encodes the calendar definition the new basis replaces.
Stones fieldWellboresfinancial_project_summary.xlsx22220exactbores with WAR coverage · Population, not a day count — the one owner figure that covers all 22 bores.
Stones fieldTotal drilling daysfinancial_project_summary.xlsx1457 d1105-352materially differentΣ WAR DRL over 22 bores · Owner's calendar spud→TD rule, summed over 22 bores.
Stones fieldTotal completion daysfinancial_project_summary.xlsx1145 d574-571materially differentΣ WAR COM over 22 bores · Owner's post-TD segment rule, summed over 22 bores.
Stones fieldWorld Oil Table 1 D&C daysbuild_wo_per_well_dc.py:562625 d1679-946materially differentΣ WAR DRL+COM over 22 bores · Owner-tabulated, but the article's tables are this repository's own model output — circular, see §5.
Held in the repo, authorship not established — Reported for completeness. Not counted as owner evidence.
608124009500 · Stones SN105Drilling days (milestone, inclusive)rig_days_summary.md:21156 d151-5within one WAR weekWAR DRL, merged · Not an independent anchor: 156 = 155 + 1, the same figure under the inclusive convention (proved in §4).
608124009500 · Stones SN105Rig days by WAR — DRLrig_days_summary.md:18151 d1510exactWAR DRL, merged
608124009500 · Stones SN105Rig days by WAR — PNDrig_days_summary.md:1849 d490exactWAR PND, merged
608124009500 · Stones SN105Rig days by WAR — COMrig_days_summary.md:1887 d91+4within one WAR weekWAR COM, merged · See §3 — a 4-day TA/COM boundary reallocation.
608124009500 · Stones SN105Rig days by WAR — TArig_days_summary.md:1821 d17-4within one WAR weekWAR TA, merged · See §3 — a 4-day TA/COM boundary reallocation.
608124009500 · Stones SN105Rig days by WAR — all codesrig_days_summary.md:18308 d3080exactall codes, merged · Sum of the four code figures.
Agreement exact — identical to the day within one WAR week — |Δ| ≤ 7 d, inside the reporting quantum within rounding — non-day measurement, |Δ| < 0.1% materially different — |Δ| > 7 d not checkable from WAR

3 · The one disagreement in the by-code split

A 4-day TA↔COM reallocation, and why

The by-code figures held in rig_days_summary.md are DRL 151, PND 49, COM 87, TA 21. We reproduce DRL 151, PND 49, COM 91, TA 17 — two codes exact, the total exact at 308, and exactly four days moved from TA to COM. It is a boundary-placement difference, not a counting difference.

SN_WARWeek startWeek endDaysCodeAttribution
-2640942015-02-012015-02-077PND
-2648472015-02-082015-02-147TA
-2650822015-02-152015-02-217TA
-2774272015-10-152015-10-173TA3-day partial return — the rig comes back on location
-2774742015-10-182015-10-247COMour TA→COM boundary
-2777862015-10-252015-10-317COM
-2780552015-11-012015-11-077COM
-2783362015-11-082015-11-147COM
-2786182015-11-152015-11-217COM
-2788962015-11-222015-11-287COM
-2791182015-11-292015-12-057COM
-2794122015-12-062015-12-127COM
-2797732015-12-132015-12-197COM
-2800452015-12-202015-12-267COM
-2802852015-12-272016-01-027COM
-2804942016-01-032016-01-097COM
-2808522016-01-102016-01-167COM

The well is temporarily abandoned in February 2015 and the rig does not return until 2015-10-15. That return is reported as a 3-day partial WAR week (2015-10-15–2015-10-17) — the only place in the well's entire record where an activity-code change does not fall on a Sunday week boundary. We take the code change at the WAR record boundary, so COM begins 2015-10-18. The 87/21 split is reproduced exactly, and only, if that boundary is placed four days later at 2015-10-22: TA then runs a nominal full week (14 + 7 = 21) and COM runs 2015-10-22–2016-01-16 = 87 days.

Provenance caveat on this anchor. The {"COM": 87, ...} block sits under a “Summary and Way Forward” heading that follows the owner's signature and ends by asking him which completion method to adopt — so on the committed record it reads as our summary put to him, not his own output. We therefore file it as repo-legacy, not owner evidence. It also cannot be reproduced from the WAR rows this repository holds under any convention we tested (inclusive, exclusive, merged or unmerged), because the committed extract war_data_608124009500.csv is byte-consistent with the current WAR tables and puts the code change at 2015-10-18. Confirming authorship is ask 1.

4 · Two definitions, one well

Calendar milestone (155 / 156) vs WAR DRL (151)

The owner's drilling rule is calendar: “I have been taking the spud date – the td date as drilling days.” Spud 07/24/2014, TD 12/26/2014.

StatementSourceDaysArithmetic
Drilling daysrig_days_by_milestone.md:16 155TD − spud, exclusive = 155
Drilling daysrig_days_summary.md:21 156TD − spud + 1, the stated formula = 156
Published extractdrilling_and_completion_days_v21_kc.csv 155the exclusive convention, as shipped
WAR DRL, this basismerged DRL weeks 2014-07-23 → 2014-12-20 151inclusive over the merged span

The 155/156 pair is one figure, not two. 156 = 155 + 1 exactly; the two documents state the same milestone under the exclusive and inclusive conventions. That halves the apparent anchor count and is why the ledger files 156 as repo-legacy.

The 4-day gap to WAR DRL is the reporting quantum, not an error. The last DRL week ends 2014-12-20; TD is reached 12/26/2014, which falls inside the following week — and that week is returned as PND, not DRL. The calendar rule charges the whole TD week to drilling; the WAR rule charges it to whatever code the operator filed. On a continuously drilled well the two differ by at most one WAR week. On a suspended or batch-drilled well they diverge without bound: the calendar rule keeps counting through months of rig-off-well time, the WAR rule does not. That is the entire reason #1063 exists, and it is exactly why agreement on this one continuously-drilled well cannot be read as agreement on the population.

5 · Coverage

What we can compute vs what we can check

All 22 bores on the owner's Stones list carry WAR activity and are computable on the new basis. Exactly one of them carries an owner figure to check against. The rest are shown so the change is visible — they are not validated.

API12WellWAR DRLWAR COMWAR D&CPNDTAPublished DRLPublished COMΔ D&COwner figure?
608124001500001720720476952-49none
60812400220000270700013-6none
6081240077000011190119242612349-53none
60812400870000470070907124-25none
6081240092000053803870394-5none
60812400920100577077008112-16none
608124009500SN105151912424917155152-65hand-worked
608124009900SN109705112156679101-59none
60812401030000960600110-5none
608124010400SN2087177148144988117-57none
60812401050000830305115-13none
608124011000011750752107724-26none
608124011001SN11077683212623112-52none
608124011200SN2066361124707867-21none
608124011700SN2075632881406240-14none
608124012300SN21338347242039108-75none
608124012900SN11542418316018456-157none
608124013400SN216354075808048-53none
608124013700SN114490497015617-124none
608124013701SN11474552350480-32none
608124014300SN21949049874517-13none
608124014301SN21902626280250-26none
Stones — 22 bores1,1055741,6793661831,4571,168-9461 of 22

Against the owner's own V30 field totals (1,457 drilling, 1,145 completion) the WAR basis returns 1,105 and 574. Both gaps are large, both are expected by construction, and neither is evidence either way: his totals are his calendar rule summed over the same bores, so the difference measures the definition change, not its correctness. Note also that the published extract totals 1,168 completion days against the 1,145 in his shipped workbook — a +23-day divergence that predates this basis change and is tracked as #846.

The World Oil Table 1 anchor is circular. Stones prints 2,625 D&C days there, and the owner tabulated that table — but the validation page records that “the article's four tables are this repository's FDAS V30 model output”. Comparing our numbers to it compares our numbers to themselves. It is a useful measure of how far published figures will move (-946 days for Stones); it is not a check.

6 · Grain

Wellbore (API12) vs well (API10)

Three of the eighteen Stones wells carry a sidetrack. Rolling those up by summing per-bore days double-counts the single WAR week that reports both bores across the sidetrack transition; the module unions instead.

API10BoresAll WAR days (union)All WAR days (summed)Double-countedD&C (union)D&C (summed)
60812401102 bore(s): 00,012332407158158
60812401372 bore(s): 00,011751827101101
60812401432 bore(s): 00,0111712477575

Seven days per sidetrack boundary, every time. On these three wells the double-counted week happens to be filed under a non-D&C code, so the D&C columns are unaffected and the two roll-ups agree — which is precisely why the defect is easy to miss. Where the straddling week is filed DRL or COM, summing over-reports D&C by a full week per sidetrack. Both grains are published so a consumer can never pick the wrong one by accident.

7 · Caveats that apply to every number above

What a WAR-derived day count cannot resolve

±7-day quantization

A WAR is a weekly return (Form BSEE-0133 under 30 CFR 250.743; Sunday 00:00 to Saturday 23:59) carrying one activity code for the whole week. A phase boundary can therefore only ever be located to within one week. Every figure on this page — ours and the owner's — inherits a ±7-day uncertainty at each code transition, which is why the ledger treats |Δ| ≤ 7 as within-quantum rather than as agreement.

Coverage floor of the WAR feed

The WAR tables in this checkout run 1988-04 to 2026-02, but density is not uniform: only 867 returns exist before 1998, and the first month carrying more than fifty is 1997-10. A bore that spudded before then will under-report, silently. Stones is unaffected — its earliest spud is 2004-12-31 — but the same basis applied to older Gulf inventory is not safe without a per-bore coverage check. (Note: we found no April-2004 step in this feed; see the corrections note.)

PND is undefined

BSEE publishes no code list for WELL_ACTIVITY_CD; the table we hold is the BOREHOLE_STAT_CD list, and its own note reads “PND means we guessed it as unknown.” PND runs to 366 days across these 22 bores — more than the 574 completion days the DRL_COM basis reports, and excluded from the D&C total on that basis. Fold it into completion instead and Stones D&C moves from 1,679 to 2,045 days. It is therefore never merged silently into either bucket; it is carried in its own column and a basis includes it explicitly or not at all. Until BSEE confirms its meaning (#1065), any basis that includes or excludes PND is a choice, not a fact.

8 · The most useful output of this exercise

What we need from the owner to settle it

Ranked by how much each would move the evidence base. The first three are cheap for him and would take the independent anchor count from one bore to a population.

1 · Hand-worked completion counts for 5–10 more bores

decisive

The same exercise he did for 608124009500 — count the distinct daily remark dates after TD — on a handful of deliberately varied bores: one continuously drilled, one suspended mid-drilling, one batch-drilled, one sidetracked, one with a late recompletion. Five bores chosen that way settles more than fifty chosen at random.

2 · Authorship of the by-WAR split

decisive

Did he produce {"COM": 87, "DRL": 151, "PND": 49, "TA": 21}, or did we? If his, we have a second independent anchor and a 4-day boundary rule to reconcile. If ours, the ledger's repo-legacy tier is empty and the evidence base is thinner still. One sentence from him decides which.

3 · The completion-method decision he asked us for

blocking

rig_days_summary.md ends by asking us to pick among his three completion methods and marks method 3 preferred. That question is still open, and it is upstream of every completion number on this page. Answering it — or having him confirm the WAR code basis supersedes all three — is #1064.

4 · A rig-contract or daily-report cross-check on one well

high value

Anything outside BSEE — a rig day-rate invoice, an operator DDR, a spud-to-rig-release date pair — for even one Lower Tertiary well. Every anchor we hold is derived from the same WAR feed, so none of them can detect a systematic bias in that feed. One external source breaks the circularity.

5 · Julia JU102 (608124003301)

cheap

He supplied parsed remarks for this bore but never a day count from them. The raw material for a second hand-worked anchor is already committed (api_608124003301_remarks_parsed.xlsx, 32 weeks) — it needs only his count.

6 · What PND means

via BSEE

Not his to answer, but he has the BSEE relationships. PND is the single largest unattributed block in the Stones record.

Corrections to the brief this page was built from. (a) The {"COM": 87, ...} split and rig_days_by_WAR.md are not demonstrably owner-authored — both sit in our voice, and the latter closes “This is how we can calculate…”. (b) There is no April-2004 eWell step in this feed; monthly returns rise smoothly through 2003–2005, and the real floor is 1997-10. (c) rig_days_by_milestone.md carries two owner figures the brief did not list — completion = 93 days and D&C = 248 — and they are the most valuable anchors in the repository.