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Buckskin Field Economics

Per-well and field-level NPV from public BSEE data.

Provenance. Computed by a monthly cashflow model (build_field_npv_timeline) over public BSEE OGOR-A production and drilling records, life-to-date through the latest available OGOR-A month.

Data limits & honest caveats

The NPV shown is the model truth, presented as-is — not reframed as value-positive. Every Lower-Tertiary field here is NPV-negative at a 10% discount rate life-to-date. Operation markers (drilling/completion dates) are annotations only and do not feed the cashflow model.

#Buckskin Field Economics Report

Development: Buckskin (tieback20) · Lease: 6 leases (G25806, G25813, G25814, G25815, G25823, G32650) · First oil: 2018-08-01 · Discount rate: 10% annual

Data window: 2000-09 -> 2026-04

#Summary

On public BSEE production + cost data, Buckskin is NPV-negative at 10% life-to-date: terminal cumulative NPV $-989.7 M.

Generated from public BSEE OGOR-A production and drilling/WAR records run through a monthly cashflow + trimmed-discount model (build_field_npv_timeline), covering field life through the latest available BSEE OGOR-A month. The NPV timeline below is an additive presentation layer over that model; it does not alter the computed final NPV.

#NPV Timeline

Cumulative discounted NPV evolution over field life, with critical well operations annotated. Terminal cumulative NPV = $-989.7 M.

Cumulative NPV path (by year): █▇▇▇▇▆▆▆▆▆▁▁▁▂▂▃▃▄▄ start $-129M → trough $-1,662M (2018) → latest $-990M

Year Net Cashflow ($MM) Cumulative NPV ($MM) Critical Operations
2008-130.9-129.3Sidetrack: 001 (608084001600)
2009-20.9-149.6Temporary abandonment: 001 (608084001601)
20100.0-149.6
2011-132.0-250.4Temporary abandonment: 001 (608084002100)
20120.0-250.4
2013-223.3-391.4Sidetrack: 001 (608084003100)
Sidetrack: 001 (608084003101)
Sidetrack: 001 (608084003102)
2014-258.5-539.1Sidetrack: 001 (608084003103)
Sidetrack: 001 (608084003104)
Sidetrack: 001 (608084003105)
Plug & abandon: 001 (608084003106)
Sidetrack: 002 (608084004700)
Plug & abandon: 002 (608084004701)
20150.0-539.1
20160.0-539.1
20170.0-539.1Plug & abandon: 001 (608084002100)
2018-2,876.2-1,661.8Sidetrack: 002 (608084006000)
Sidetrack: 003 (608084006100)
Temporary abandonment: SS003 (608084006101)
Completion: SS002 (608084006001)
Well online (first production): API 608084006001
Completion: SS003 (608084006101)
Well online (first production): API 608084006101
2019157.4-1,607.0
2020140.0-1,561.5
2021423.2-1,435.7Sidetrack: 001 (608084006700)
Sidetrack: 001 (608084006701)
2022548.7-1,287.0Temporary abandonment: SS001 (608084006702)
Completion: SS001 (608084006702)
Well online (first production): API 608084006702
Plug & abandon: 002 (608084007000)
2023492.3-1,166.5Sidetrack: 004 (608084007300)
Temporary abandonment: SS004 (608084007301)
2024335.3-1,092.0Completion: SS004 (608084007301)
Well online (first production): API 608084007301
2025431.5-1,004.9
202679.4-989.7

#Critical Operations Detail

Date Operation Well Cumulative NPV at event ($MM)
2008-11-23Sidetrack001 (608084001600)-96.0
2009-01-18Temporary abandonment001 (608084001601)-149.6
2011-09-18Temporary abandonment001 (608084002100)-250.4
2013-09-08Sidetrack001 (608084003100)-371.9
2013-11-03Sidetrack001 (608084003101)-390.8
2013-12-29Sidetrack001 (608084003102)-391.4
2014-01-26Sidetrack001 (608084003103)-396.1
2014-03-16Sidetrack001 (608084003104)-407.8
2014-06-29Sidetrack001 (608084003105)-436.2
2014-09-28Plug & abandon001 (608084003106)-497.5
2014-10-26Sidetrack002 (608084004700)-513.5
2014-12-14Plug & abandon002 (608084004701)-539.1
2017-07-02Plug & abandon001 (608084002100)-539.1
2018-03-18Sidetrack002 (608084006000)-599.5
2018-05-27Sidetrack003 (608084006100)-659.7
2018-06-17Temporary abandonmentSS003 (608084006101)-687.5
2018-07-01CompletionSS002 (608084006001)-754.3
2018-08-01Well online (first production)API 608084006001-1,633.1
2018-09-02CompletionSS003 (608084006101)-1,645.8
2018-10-01Well online (first production)API 608084006101-1,661.8
2021-09-26Sidetrack001 (608084006700)-1,459.1
2021-12-19Sidetrack001 (608084006701)-1,435.7
2022-01-23Temporary abandonmentSS001 (608084006702)-1,420.5
2022-06-03CompletionSS001 (608084006702)-1,333.2
2022-08-01Well online (first production)API 608084006702-1,321.3
2022-09-01Well online (first production)API 608084006702-1,306.8
2022-11-20Plug & abandon002 (608084007000)-1,299.5
2023-09-03Sidetrack004 (608084007300)-1,200.5
2023-10-08Temporary abandonmentSS004 (608084007301)-1,188.4
2024-02-02CompletionSS004 (608084007301)-1,150.5
2024-08-01Well online (first production)API 608084007301-1,124.6

Operations are derived deterministically from BSEE Well Activity Reports (bin/war/) and OGOR-A first-production dates (BSEE OGOR-A pickled .bin DataFrames (zip archives absent in checkout)). Activity codes: DRL=drilling, COM=completion, WO=workover, REC=recompletion, ST=sidetrack; re-entries detected via API completion-suffix changes on a shared wellbore. Markers are annotations only and do not feed the cashflow model.


#Well-Level NPV Stackup

Field terminal NPV decomposed into per-well contributions that sum exactly to the field total. Field NPV = $-989.7 M; sum of per-well net NPV = $-989.7 M (residual $0.0000).

Rank Well (API) Name Oil (MMbbl) Gross well NPV ($MM) Allocated shared cost ($MM) Net well NPV ($MM) % of field NPV
1608084006001SS00234.85394.1-823.8-429.643.4%
2608084006101SS00326.48280.7-626.0-345.334.9%
3608084006702SS0018.7870.9-207.6-136.713.8%
4608084007301SS0042.77-12.7-65.4-78.17.9%
Reading the ranking. Under production-pro-rata allocation, the largest producer absorbs the most shared capital — so the highest-output well can show the *most negative* net NPV. The Gross well NPV column reflects standalone operating performance; the Net well NPV column reflects each well's share of the fully-loaded field (which is NPV-negative overall, so every well's net is negative). Bottom line: a negative *net* NPV here is an allocation outcome on an NPV-negative field, not a verdict on the well's own performance — read the Gross well NPV column for standalone results.

Per-well net NPV (signed bars; █ = value-additive, ▓ = drag):

SS002      -429.6 M  ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓
SS003      -345.3 M  ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓
SS001      -136.7 M  ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓
SS004       -78.1 M  ▓▓▓▓

Interactive NPV waterfalls → — two views: an over-time NPV bridge (each year's change in cumulative NPV, with the biggest swings annotated by the events that drove them) and this per-well stackup (each well's net NPV stepping to the field total). Hover any bar for detail. Rebuild with uv run --with plotly python scripts/lower_tertiary/build_npv_stackup_chart.py --dev Buckskin.

By block (OGOR AREA_CODE_BLOCK_NUM):

Block Oil (MMbbl) % of field oil
KC 82964.5488.6%
KC 8308.3411.4%

Block scope: 2 OGOR blocks present; per-block oil shares shown. Per-block NPV would require a block-level cost split (gap: shared facilities/D&C are field-level, not block-tagged).

The stackup covers the 4 producing wells. The field's 25 total wellbores also include appraisal and sidetrack/re-drill bores; their drilling & completion capital is part of the shared cost allocated pro-rata (it is not attributed to a single producer).

Allocation assumption. Shared field costs (facilities, fixed opex, host) and the drilling/completion cost of non-producing bores (appraisal/sidetrack wells with no production to stand against) are pooled and allocated to the producing wells pro-rata by each well's share of total field oil production. Each producing well's own revenue, royalty, variable opex, and directly-resolvable D&C are attributed to it. Per-well NPVs sum to the field NPV.


#Well Geometry (3D)

Interactive 3D well-path views — minimum-curvature trajectories from BSEE directional surveys, rendered with Plotly and Three.js — are in development for this field. When verified they will live at:

They are intentionally not linked yet: the geometry render must first be confirmed to cover the same lease-resolved producers shown in the NPV stackup above (same APIs, same field), so the economics and the well paths never describe different wells.


#Financial Summary

Life-to-date field economics on public BSEE data (2000-09 -> 2026-04). D&C and facilities are one-time capital already incurred; revenue, royalty and opex accrue with production.

Metric Value
Revenue$5,115.6 M
Royalty$959.2 M
Variable opex$437.3 M
Fixed opex$691.7 M
D&C cost$2,261.6 M
Facilities cost$1,800.0 M
Net cashflow (undiscounted)$-1,034.1 M
NPV @ 10%$-989.7 M
MIRR (annual)4.47%
Producers4
Injectors0
Wellbores25

Return metric: MIRR is the return measure used for these developments, not IRR. Deepwater Lower-Tertiary cashflows are heavily front-loaded (large D&C + facilities outflows, then a long production tail), so the net-cashflow sign changes more than once and the IRR polynomial can have multiple — or no — real roots; MIRR (single reinvestment/finance rate at the 10% discount rate) is well-defined and unambiguous. NPV @ 10% remains the primary value metric.

_Source-of-record for this field: leases_v21_kc.csv + drilling_and_completion_days_v21_kc.csv + BSEE OGOR-A .bin production._


#Price Sensitivity

NPV is linear in the oil price deck: each +$1/bbl on the realized oil price moves field NPV by $+15.3 M. Life-to-date NPV reaches zero at a flat-equivalent realized WTI of $135/bbl, versus the actual volume-weighted realized $70/bbl over the window.

Flat-equivalent realized WTI ($/bbl) NPV @ 10% ($MM)
50-1,295.8
60-1,142.8
70 ← actual-989.7
80-836.6
90-683.6

Exact, not sampled: NPV is affine in a uniform price multiplier (revenue and royalty scale with price; variable/fixed opex, D&C, facilities and discounting do not), so one base run plus one scaled run define the entire line. 'Flat-equivalent realized WTI' is the volume-weighted average price; the underlying deck is the historical monthly WTI path.


#Next Steps

  # 1. refresh the latest BSEE OGOR-A production (2025 + current year)
  uv run python scripts/refresh_bsee_ogor_recent.py
  # 2. regenerate this report (latest window is the default;
  #    leases are auto-derived for the field)
  uv run python scripts/lower_tertiary/generate_field_economics_report.py --dev Buckskin